As we ready our FPL squads for the Gameweek 14 of the Premier League season, some players are naturally drawing our attention, be that due to an attractive cheap pricetag or indeed perceived opportunity. Here @FPLJesus brings us some players he believes are under-owned when both those factors are weighed, and also a few players who he feels are over-owned. Who should you buy, and who should you sell?
Overowned – Sell
Philippe Coutinho – £8.5m, 34% Owned
Although Philippe Coutinho was a popular captain shout in the last gameweek, an ankle injury to the Brazilian has ruled him out for a number of weeks. Disappointing news for large numbers of owners, those holding for GW14 will be at a disadvantage while Coutinho’s price drops over the course of his absence. It would be wise to remove the player as soon as possible.
Gylfi Sigurdsson is the mostly popular replacement for Coutinho at present but the opportunity to upgrade to Sanchez or Hazard will likely see record hits from managers this week.
While taking a hit is sometimes neccessary, Coutinho is a player with high ownership and decent price. I would argue that a decent player could be found in his place without the need for too much reshuffling such as Firmino, Walcott or Sigurddsson. I think those who choose to downgrade their midfielder this week instead of upgrading could steal an advantage as those whose hits don’t pay off will fall further than those whose free transfers misfired.
Romalu Lukaku – £9.6m, 30% Owned
Despite being the 4th top scoring striker in the FPL this season, a run of 3 consecutive blanks have seen Lukaku’s recruitment numbers turn negative. Before the last gameweek over 100,000 managers ditched the Everton frontman with that number still rising as 2 price drops this week have confirmed.
It may not feel the most urgent of transfers with 3 home games for the striker in the next 4 but considering the opponents in those games are Man United, Arsenal and Liverpool fantasy managers will be lacking confidence in their striker knowing Everton have won just once since gameweek 5.
Consistent price drops are forcing managers hands this week but holding one more fixture could return points when considering Man United’s leaky defence. However, with the majority of owners looking to ditch in favour of cheaper options such as Charlie Austin enjoying great form and fixtures, holding on to Lukaku feels like the wrong move.
Ilkay Gundogan – £5.6m, 11.2% Owned
It looked promising for recruiters as the German international began to rise in price after a brace recently, but the reemergence of Yaya Toure has alerted owners to the likelihood that Gundogan will not be playing week in week out.
For a cheap midfielder, rotation risk can be detrimental to the health of an FPL side when absent the weeks they are needed. Owners have begun to shift the player and any money banked on the Man City man is likely already lost for managers still holding the player.
Faced with Chelsea at home this week, it is unlikely Gundogan will hit many points even if chosen to start by Guardiola, its definitely time to let him go with better options in the same price bracket including Victor Moses, Leroy Fer and Robert Snodgrass.
Underowned – Buy
Harry Kane – £10.9m, 8.6% Owned
Back fit and starting for Spurs, Kane has scored 3 in 3 games since returning to the side.
Always a favourite in the FPL, Kane’s ownership is still relatively low compared to similarly priced strikers. Spurs form has faltered in recent games but upcoming fixtures will be hard for managers to ignore. Three of the next 4 games at home against opposition Swansea, Hull and
Burnley suggest Spurs are a team worth backing for the month upcoming.
An away game against Man United is ill placed for GW15 and managers will be fearful if Kane fails to score points in GW14. It is a risk many will be taking however as they his price returns to its original £11m.
The fitness of the striker is still unproven while his price prevents investment elsewhere in the side, however, with a positive run of fixtures and 3 goals already despite not fully firing suggests ignoring the Englishman could be careless.
Gylfi Sigurdsson – £7.3m, 6.1% Owned
After this weekend Swansea have a run of fixtures even a small team can gain confidence from. Sunderland, West Brom, Middlesbrough, West Ham, Bournemouth and Crystal palace form the next six gameweeks for the Swans of whom only West Brom currently occupy a spot in the top half of the table (9th).
This is extremely inviting for recruiters of Sigurdsson, mainly because his record in recent campaigns (22 goals and 18 assists since the start of 14/15 season) is brilliant for a mid priced midfielder.
The other positive for Sigurdsson recruiters is his current position at centre forward in a false nine formation. This essentially puts the Iceland international out of position with a greater chance of goals and assists for his team. Knowing he is not just on set pieces but brilliant at them too will also encourage more managers to sign the player.
His exploits are no secret amongst FPL circles but at just 6.1% it would appear the wider game players could still be unaware. Spurs away in GW14 is not the usual fixture managers feel comfortable in backing a player for, but considering players always seem to score against their former employers its not so crazy to bring Siggy in now, particularly if you need a replacement for Coutinho.
Victor Moses – £5.7m, 2.6% Owned
Having been on so many loans in recent years it is hard to think of Victor Moses as a Chelsea player, but having played at least 80 minutes in the last 7 games for Chelsea, it looks like he has finally nailed down a spot in the team.
Two goals and assist in that time may not be as explosive as dearer Chelsea options but his overall contribution to the in form side have earned Moses Chelsea’s Player of the Month award for November.
Chelsea fixtures are a winnable after this weeks test away at Man City. Differential hunters will be keen to find out West Brom, Sunderland, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth are Chelsea’s opponents until GW18. On current form it would take a brave manager to bet against them, and with Moses the cheapest entry into their midfield it looks an inexpensive route into some FPL points.
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