As we ready our FPL squads for the Gameweek 15 of the Premier League season, some players are naturally drawing our attention, be that due to an attractive cheap pricetag or indeed perceived opportunity. Here @FPLJesus brings us some players he believes are under-owned when both those factors are weighed, and also a few players who he feels are over-owned. Who should you buy, and who should you sell?
Underowned – Buy
Pedro – £7.3m, 5.4% Owned
Chelsea midfielder Pedro has generally been in FPL manager bad books since his Premier league arrival because he failed to deliver on the potential that his initial performances promised. After his price managed to drop despite a huge number of transfers in many managers found value in players elsewhere. Although he managed to score points for late recruiters, his long term value was inconsistent due to rotation.
Under new manager Antonio Conte, Pedro has managed more regular game time as part of the Chelsea midfield starting all of the last 8 games. Pedro has failed to complete any of the 8 matches but managed to score 3 goals and contribute 4 assists for his side in that period. A decent return for a player currently being outshined by performances from team mates Eden Hazard and Diego Costa.
In FPL the advantage is gained by containing the most valuable team, not necessarily having the highest number of big hitters and managers who subscribe to that philosophy may want to consider the former Barcelona attacker for their team. With a run of fixtures including West Brom, Sunderland and Crystal Palace in his next 3, Pedro won’t be considered by too many managers who will be taking hits for dearer Chelsea representation. For those who cant afford Hazard and fear Costa being suspended, Pedro looks like the recruit for you.
Kelechi Iheanacho – £6.6m, 4.3% Owned
It is no secret how good the Man City youngster Kelechi Ihenacho is, but a concern for FPL managers is that a talent so young is not only tasked with replacing the leagues best striker but Man City just aren’t as convincing as they were at the start of the season.
The home performance against Chelsea was an embarrassment by full time but Guardiola is a personality strong enough to recover and refocus his side in time for an away trip against the champions Leicester City in GW15.
Ihenacho has good stats it has to be said. In the first 5 games of the season he played just 161 minutes but achieved 2 goals and 3 assists showing great FPL potential. Since then hes played 140 minutes and scored just once, but only 14 of those minutes actually took place over the last 5 gameweeks. Bluntly, there isnt a big enough sample of recent games to really grasp how consistent Ihenacho will be in an FPL team this December.
However, the Nigerians price is low, his ownership is low, and minutes on the pitch are set to increase over the next 4 game weeks. Ihenacho has already proved this season he is hungry to score FPL points and as managers are forced to find an alternative for Aguero the replacement is simple and set to bank team value.
If unconvinced by Ihenacho’s potential one piece of evidence that his FPL pedigree is not to be ignored is the fact he has currently scored 3 more FPL points overall than Wayne Rooney this season despite playing far fewer minutes
Divock Origi – £6.6m, 3% Owned
Since Philippe Coutinho found himself out of action for a few weeks, many FPL managers immediately looked to other midfield options but the player who has benefited the most in terms of goals has been Divock Origi.
Scoring 3 in his last 3 for the reds, Origi started for Liverpool for this first time this season in the defeat to Bournemouth. On current form it would be cruel to drop him back to the bench but the risk is a concern with 3 fixtures in the next week culminating in the Merseyside derby in GW17.
Managers may be keen to maintain Liverpool representation during Coutinhos absence while avoiding the dear Sadio Mane or over-rated Bobby Firmino but will find in Divock Origi there is a serious differential enjoying goalscoring form. Set to start against West ham in GW15, Origi could be the most overlooked FPL asset going into GW15
Overowned – Sell
Joe Allen – £5.3m, 12.8% Owned
The 5th midfield spot is an important one and when Joe Allen hit fine form earlier in the season his potential was there for all to see. However after over a third of the season now played, a pattern in the budget midfield market is emerging. The pattern being that after a 3 weeks to a month, the in form budget midfielder is replaced by a new one. Fer to Capoue to Snodgrass to Gundogan to Phillips and now possibly Emre Can goes to prove that the 5th midfield spot is one managers will struggle to hold down for long periods of time.
Joe Allen faces a tough effort in the next month to maintain his high ownership. With fixtures against Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool upcoming before the new year, owners could be in for nasty surprise when Allens last minute call up to their FPL side scores limited points.
With such high ownership it only takes a small number of people ditching to cause a price fall, it is better to abandon now and sign Phillips or Can and make use of the banked
Sergio Aguero – £13m, 29% Owned
Many will likely skip this paragraph having already ditched the hot headed Argentinian but these rare periods without Aguero are key because of the variety of striker with which managers will replace him with.
Not just that but at still 30% owned, it goes to prove that most managers don’t even consult their team until late in the week after initial price changes have taken place. Realistically as soon as confirmation of the 4 game ban was announced, ownership should have reverted to small numbers but such is the casual nature of Fantasy Football, 1.2m Aguero owners would rather lose value than decide on a replacement early. Positive for many, the lack of movement offers a nice opportunity for the alert managers to steal some value in their mini-leagues as well as the overall rank.
Thousands of managers forget every week to finalise changes or click the confirm button and Aguero’s ban means this week will be the worse in a while for that to happen to an FPL side. 1.2m managers still own the City front man, this is a shockingly high figure which suggests a lot of managers will likely dismiss their team during the busy schedule and return next season.
Charlie Austin – £6.9m, 17.4% Owned
Forced off in the Europa League match on Thursday night with a dislocated shoulder, Charlie Austin owners have been dealt a cruel blow to their overall totals as a hit will be likely as the home game to Middlesbrough looks a doubtful appearance now.
Many will have a pairing of Austin and Aguero, meaning hits and changes will be great in numbers for GW15. While its unfortunate for those who have backed him, it does increase the likelihood that lesser owned strikers will begin to feature in FPL sides as the differential edge begins to separate the leaders from the template pack.
Great alternatives include Origi and Ihenacho as mentioned, but Shane Long could be worth a look as a like for like differential replacement with a point to prove.